Friday, 15 June 2007

THE ODDS OF POKER - NO LIMIT



THE TOP 20 HANDS

AA - The first thing you will notice is that AA wins only 30% of the time .Why ? AA is the biggest hand pre flop , this hand is more likely than any other to be slow played . and the more players in a pot the better the chance of someone hitting two pair or hidden trips a flush draw or double ended straight draw . Very few have the discipline to throw aces if asked the all in question . This is why AA is the most dangerous hand in NO Limit . What is the best strategy , controversial but raise enough to get heads up or 3 handed , by raising you find out where you are , you drive the rubbish out , the 6 4 off suit which would otherwise turn into two pair all in . The worse thing that can happen is you fold the table and you take the pot and live to fight another day .
The best result you induce a re raise , re raisers will probably not fold if you go over the top with everything , heads up all in pre flop AA wins 80% of the time . On a double up this is a risk worth taking .

THE OVERRATED SMALL PAIRS

10/10 : is one of the most overrated hands in poker rated 10 th , most NL Hold em players
will expect to win this hand , this hand is a nightmare , 4 over pairs means 4 over cards any A any K Q or J beats you , 3 or 4 handed , two pairs , straights , flushes enter the equation .Very hard to know where you are , unless the flop is less than 10 . If you want to play this hand aggressively raise enough to get heads up , gamble on your caller having an ace. and if an ace does not come take the pot . IF you want to play defensively play for the trips on the flop , and do not chase the boat and the river .


Calculating the odds

Calculating the odds is something you should be able to do in your sleep . Lets say you flat call KQ suited [ spades ] one of the best hands to slow play in the game . the flop is 6 S Q H JS.
This is as good as it gets .

You have matched the high pair Queens . The chance of hitting any King or Queen on the flop 36 % . [3 K 3 Q in the deck ] 6 outs for each card on every cards fall . 18 outs . 1 out roughly 2% .]

ALL IN

Your opponent has AA he plays aggressively and puts all his chips in .
A flush to any spade will make a five cards flush . 13 spades in the deck 4 dealt out that leaves 9 potential outs on the boat plus nine on the river . However the 18 potential outs needs to be adjusted down . Say you are sitting at a table of 10 , then heads up 16 cards have been mucked , some of those mucked cards will be spades . 36 % maximum chance of the flush . Probably closer to 30 % . However you also have 5 outs to either a King or a Queen on boat and river to make two pair . Another 10 outs / 20 % . Your chance of beating the aces roughly 50 % before the boat .

IT'S NEVER OVER TILL THE FAT RIVER SINGS

The boat comes it's a spade , you celebrate a king high spades flush the river comes another spades . You opponent turns over his ace of hearts and ace of spades you lose to a better flush .



MANSION


NEXT

HOW TO READ A BOARD

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